Abstract

Goliath Grouper (Epinephelus itajara) have been protected in Florida since 1990, following near extirpation of the species throughout its range due to severe overfishing and habitat degradation. Based largely on anecdotal reports of increases in incidental catch of the species, the Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission recently held a hearing to consider opening the fishery to limited take under the assumption that it has largely recovered. Because of no-take protections for the last 31 years, however, the state has limited data to objectively assess the population status of the species. Here, we develop a time-series model of Goliath Grouper densities across the last 3 decades using 1) data from the Reef Environmental Education Foundation (REEF) Volunteer Fish Survey Project, a citizen-science monitoring program ongoing since 1993, and 2) a long-term fisheries-independent diving-based fish survey in South Florida. We find that while the population appears to show strong growth over the first 20 years of the time series, in recent times it has been in decline. The reasons for this decline are unclear, but likely involved a combination of both anthropogenic (incidental catch) and natural (red tide) stressors. Regardless of the causes, our findings indicate that any implemented level of take from a limited fishery will serve to exacerbate ongoing declines in this critically endangered species.

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