Abstract

Historical spawning aggregations of mutton (Lutjanus analis), lane (L. synagris), cubeta (L. cyanopterus), dog (L. jocu), and gray (L. griseus) snappers on the inusular shelf of Cuba are examined in terms of the probability of larval dispersal from the source populations to coastal habitats in the Mesoamerican region and different ecological provinces of the island of Cuba. In particular, we examine how dispersal and recruitment vary intra- and inter-annually with oceanographic regimes, shelf configuration, and spawning sites, Our modeling approach is based on a coupled biophysical model incorporating a high-resolution ocean circulation model (MICOM), a Lagrangian scheme with larval sub-grid turbulent motion, larval sensory capabilities, and the availability of settlement habitat. Sequential runs centered on particular months and lunar phases were used to estimate the likelihood that each spawning event contributes large numbers of larvae to foreign down stream populations or to neighboring populations on the complex Cuban shelf. The model results are discussed with regard to historical data. This innovative approach of estimating larval dispersal from spawning aggregations can enhance stock-based conservation recommendations and optimize the design of marine reserve networks.

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