Abstract

Invasive lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles) spread swiftly after their introduction to South Florida in the 1980s and now inhabit diverse habitats throughout the entire Caribbean Sea, tropical western Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Lionfish are generalist consumers that feed voraciously, reducing prey abundance and richness with likely strong ecological consequences (Albins and Hixon 2008, Green et al. 2012, Côté et al. 2013). Gut content analyses show that lionfish feed on commercially and recreationally important fisheries species such as lutjanids and serranids – i.e., snappers and groupers – perhaps imposing economic damages to these fisheries (Morris and Akins 2009, Valdez-Moreno et al. 2012). Lionfish densities have been empirically, but only sparsely, measured in their invaded range. Lacking is a comprehensive assess-ment of lionfish sources and sinks and potential lionfish abundance throughout their non-native range. Such data are important to forewarn of possible lionfish impacts to sympatric, commercially valuable fishes, such as snappers and groupers, and also to help direct lionfish removals. Our aims for this study were twofold: i) To forecast lionfish larval source and sink locations throughout their invaded range using a biophysical computer model, delineated by low to high density ‘zones’, and ii) To assess the vulnerability of five recreationally and commercially important snapper and grouper species – Epinephelus morio, Mycteroperca microlepis, Epinephelus flavolimbatus, Lutjanus campechanus, and Rhombop-lites aurorubens – to lionfish predation and competitive pressure with respect to sympatric distributions to lionfish larval sinks (i.e., assuming more larval recruitment produces more adult lionfish) in the GOM.

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