Abstract

We present past, present, and future research efforts to develop and apply a United States Gulf-wide Ecosystem Model (USGWEM) to support ecosystem-based fisheries management. The USGWEM food web (Ecopath) model was developed with over a thousand diet observations, and the time-dynamic (Ecosim) models were fitted with 160 timeseries from stock assessments (SEDAR and ICCAT) and fisheries-independent SEAMAP data. This model was recently applied in a recent effort to identify trade-offs and ecological reference points for managing Gulf menhaden, which demonstrated how the target biomasses of menhaden and menhaden predators could be achieved by modifying fishing pressure for menhaden or its predators. Now, we’ve further developed the model into a spatially-explicit USGWEM Ecospace model. We describe our data syntheses for habitat maps, spatial-temporal environmental drivers, functional responses, and our initial results and validation. We present the model at this stage in development to receive feedback on our next steps in model calibration, fitting, and incorporating scientific and fisher knowledge. Potential research directions could apply the model to simulate spatial-temporal fishery closures (e.g., to reduce bycatch), conduct management strategy evaluations of Gulf shrimp fisheries, forecast fisheries impacts from climate change, and assess the effects from habitat changes due to offshore wind energy development.