Abstract

The shrimp fishery accounts for more than one-half of the total revenues generated by commercial fishing activities in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Due to its historical open access nature, the harvesting sector has historically been considered to be overcapitalized (from an economic perspective). Various management measures have been considered/implemented in an effort to reduce shrimp trawling externalities. The studies upon which many of these measures were based, however, have failed to account for the behavioral reaction of the shrimp fishermen to the policy. As a result, enacted regulations may not have achieved the anticipated goal(s) and proposed management measures are likely not to meet expectations. Based on sound discrete choice theory, the purpose of this paper is to develop an analysis of shrimp fishermen spatial behavior under uncertainty and to provide an ex post empirical economic analysis of this behavior. Location choice decision is modeled in an effort to examine short-run behavior of the shrimp fleet in response to economic and non-economic factors of relevance including (a) proposed regulation, (b) seasonality, (c) past siting choice experience, (d) risk attitudes, (e) vessel mobility, (f) profit, and (g) crowding effects. The development and empirical testing of this model will be used to assess and forecast spatial activities of fishermen for more effective management of the Gulf of Mexico shrimp fishery.

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