Abstract

A striking feature of coral reef habitats is their topographical complexity which is generated by the growth and calcification of reef-building corals. Highly rugose reefs typically support abundant and diverse biological communities which in turn provide many services to the ecosystem. In the Caribbean, such reefs were found in areas dominated by corals with complex morphological forms, such as branching Acropora, or large Montastraea colonies which generate high structural relief. Due to multiple disturbances, the recent decades have seen a major decline of these structural species across the Caribbean, resulting in a global loss of reef rugosity. As the disturbance regime on Caribbean reefs is expected to rise with climate change, there is increasing concern about the future quality of coral reef habitats and the consecutive impacts on reef-associated organisms. We developed a model of coral reef ecosystems to predict future changes in reef rugosity and potential responses of fish assemblages in the Caribbean. The model is presented here, with emphasis on (1) model assumptions and parameterisation, (2) calibration and validation and (3) preliminary results of model simulations.

PDF Preview