Abstract

The world is changing – that is irrefutable. How those changes impact society, and how society responds, are perhaps the most daunting challenges we will confront. Some of the communities most vulnerable are those small fishing villages that rely on coastal resources. Those populations are on the frontlines of confronting rising seas, shifting rainfall patterns, changes to coastal winds and currents, and increases in sea surface temperatures. It is incumbent upon each of us to ensure that together we develop adaptation responses that provide robust approaches that ensure that they are resilient to an opaque future. We must communicate the uncertainty to them. We also must strive to reduce uncertainty by ensuring that we are committed to programs that monitor conditions that may impact them. I describe here a project developed to examine how climate may impact the spiny lobster fishery of Xcalak, Quintana Roo, and Banco Chinchorro, Mexico by examining the changes that may occur to the biology, distribution, and abundance of the lobsters, as well changes to the ecological processes that affect their distribution. I then examined how the changes to the spiny lobster resource may impact the fishing community. I also examine how a changing climate may more directly affect the fishing population of Xcalak and Banco Chinchorro. Finally, I developed a communications plan which can be used to monitor for changing conditions, thus providing a better informed community while simultaneously giving managers the data needed to understand when focused adaptation plans should be implemented.

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