Abstract

Monthly spiny lobster catch data of twenty two fishing seasons, from Chinchorro Bank Mexico were analyzed. The Bank holds an isolated stock, where recruitment to the fishery from other areas, or migrations in or out the Bank are considered non-significant. The fishery depletes the stock every nine-month fishing season and therefore it behaves as a depletion experiment and allowing the application of De Lury’s method every year, finding that the stock size declined abruptly the first five years, it remained relatively steady for the next thirteen years, showing a tendency to recover the last four years of the series. Relative regularity shown by data allowed to try forecasting yield based on the previous months or years, this way second degree equations were applied to data and significant correlations were found; here, the catch of July and August were compared to total catch of the season as well as yield one year against yield the year before. Another parabola was also fitted to catch data arranged over time. Equations showed a reasonable good fit to data series, but with the exception of the only one, all others over estimate the expected value. By fitting catch data over time a very accurate and reliable procedure to forecast the spiny lobster catch for next year at Chinchorro Bank was found. Tendency of data suggests that if current conditions of the fishery and maintained, the stock might recover to the levels of 1988 when near 70 tons were caught and the catch value and the number of jobs could be three times higher than the current ones

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