Abstract

The study of climatic variability through the last two decades has shown that in the long term, climate has been playing a significant role driving catch trends; in the case of declines, the fishing intensity and the climate have played a synergistic role; multiple regression analysis of the main fisheries shows high correlation between each of two climate indices and the catch of the most abundant stocks. This effect was evaluated in the most important exploited fish stocks of the Northern Gulf of Mexico, from a total of more than sixty six species recorded. The effect of climate variability, evidenced after the use of the Southern Oscillation Index and the North Atlantic Oscillation Index as independent variables and the catch of the most abundant stocks as dependent variable; results displayed the same correlation with each species tested, even though independent variables were formulated after different sources. This indicates the strong influence of climate, expressed by indices arisen from different and independent sources of information. Some resulting lines suggest an upward trend, and others suggest a downward trend. These lines may be interpreted as the most likely expectations of the catch in the near future. Here, those with declining trends will be difficult to separate from effects of fishing intensity or other kinds of impact.

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