Abstract

First reported from Atlantic coral reefs in 2004, Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans) have spread rapidly around the Caribbean basin, and are now one of the most abundant predators of their size on invaded Bahamian coral reefs. To understand the impact of predation by lionfish on native fish communities in the Bahamas, and to predict their potential impacts in the wider Caribbean, we synthesized data on invasive lionfish population parameters, bioenergetics and diet to created a probabilistic model of lionfish prey consumption on invaded reefs and compared these consumption rates with estimates of production of their fish prey. To parameterize our model, we collected data on prey-sized fish density, diversity and size distribution, and lionfish density, size distribution and diet collected from 13 invaded coral reef sites off the southwest coast of New Providence, Bahamas, from May through to September 2008. Our analyses reveal that lionfish have the potential to remove prey from many reefs at a rate far greater than reef fish populations can replenish themselves. We also used our model to quantify the density of lionfish that could be sustained by available prey fish production at each site. ‘Sustainable’ lionfish densities depend not only fish production rates, but on the size distribution of lionfish at each site. Our model provides a method by which regional resource managers can assess the risk of local reef fish populations to lionfish predation, and set clear targets in terms of lionfish density for control and management efforts on invaded Caribbean reefs.

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